– NATO...Are Its Final Days Just Ahead

No room in NATO
New Europe

A man walks by the main entrance of Romania’s Parliament Palace that will host the work of the NATO Summit, Bucharest, March 28, 2008

The NATO Summit in Bucharest due April 2 to 4 is likely to end up being a failure. For the Bush Administration, the successful conclusion of the NATO Summit, especially in terms of enlargement, is needed to populate the list of the “George Bush Legacy.” The success of the meeting is also important for the Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, responsible for the summit, because it will secure him the post of US Ambassador in Moscow.

The summit will not succeed in raising more troops for Afghanistan. None of the Allies seem to be willing to contribute with troops. The recent French contribution with 1000 troops unlikely will be followed by others. Only Albania and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), if granted NATO membership, will be willing to participate in the Afghanistan expedition. Both countries can socially afford to send troops into war zones. They need to train their soldiers and there are plenty of volunteers, thanks to the salary in currency and the opportunities they will enjoy if they return. That is why the enrollment of Albania and FYROM are priorities for the USA although neither of them fulfill the membership criteria set by the Alliance. This explains why the State Department has not yet released the relevant report to Congress.

Kosovo is another “hot potato” for the summit. Whether it was right or wrong, premature or not, to grant Kosovo independence, it is now irrelevant since independence is a fact. The issue now is to make independence viable and prevent other minority areas in the Balkans from following the Kosovo example. The area of Tetovo in FYROM is overwhelmingly populated by ethnic Albanians, confines with Kosovo and Albania, and the population is already speaking loudly for independence although the local Albanian party participates in the government coalition. In neighboring Bulgaria, a full NATO and EU Member State, the leader of the Turkish party which participates in the government leftist coalition, Mr. Ahmet Dukan, is preparing to set a referendum in the Kardjali area to claim independence.

The Kardjali area, located in the south-east part of Bulgaria borders with Turkey and Greece, is populated exclusively by ethnic Turks. A referendum for independence in Kardjali will yield more than 80 percent in favour, and even if Bulgaria opposes it, Turkey is ready to recognise the potentially-split area and grant aid and Turkish passports to the residents. These are only two of the cases surfacing in south-east Europe after the declaration of Kosovo independence, and others will follow, not necessarily in the area. These are priority issues to be addressed in the NATO Summit because it is far more important to secure stability in Europe, from Scotland to Kardjali, and from the Basque Country to Tetovo, rather than raise troops for the poppy-lands south of Kabul.

As far as NATO enlargement is concerned, the membership of Georgia and Ukraine, which have been invited to join the Alliance, is a difficult decision to take because it will add to the mounting New Cold War. Russia’s envoy to NATO, Amb. Dmitry Rogozin, said that “The possible admission of Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance would put Russia’s security under threat.” At the same time, Greece, despite American pressures, will veto FYROM’s membership to NATO (and to the European Union) unless a settlement over the dispute of that country’s name is reached.

All American efforts and pressures to reach a compromise between Athens and Skopje have failed so far. Unless Washington is able to convince Skopje to accept a composite name for all uses such as “Nova Makedonia,” and get it ratified by the UN Security Council before the summit, and NATO’s general assembly commits for adoption of that name in the country’s revised constitution, there will be no FYROM membership in NATO, and, therefore, no FYROM troops in Afghanistan.