Reports are coming in that Israel is moving towards a military confrontation with Iran while the US sits and waits.
According to recent reports Israel’s defense establishment has noted that the Islamic Republic of Iran is trying to improve their air defense systems in areas that the Israeli military has been attacking. These reports claim that Iran is developing an array of surface-to-air missiles in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and other locations, seeking to bring down Israeli aircraft that target Iran and its proxies.
These reports come a couple of days after it was reported that Israel targeted Hezbollah-linked targets in Syria. This came after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would not disrupt Israeli attacks upon Iranian targets in Syria. According to these reports, Israel hit yet another three more targets in Syria early Monday morning. However, it should be added that during a recent Israeli air strike on Syria, Syrian soldiers fired back utilizing an Iranian-made missile defense system.
Dr. Seth Frantzman, an expert on drone warfare recently published a book titled Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines and Artificial Intelligence. He noted in a recent article in the Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies have also used drones to attack the State of Israel: “In February 2018, an Iranian drone from the T-4 base near Palmyra flew into Israeli airspace. Israel shot it down. In May 2021, another Iranian drone, brought from Iraq, flew into Israeli airspace, and was downed. In August 2019, Israel struck a Hezbollah killer drone team that was operating near the Golan Heights border.”
Other reports verify that the Israeli government has noted an increased use of Iranian drones targeting Israel by Hezbollah, Hamas, and others. Iranian political theorist Dr. Reza Parchizadeh stated in an interview with Israel Today: “The reason for the Iranian regime propping up Syria’s air defenses is that it is anticipating an overwhelming Israeli invasion of Iran’s nuclear facilities soon. The regime knows that once the charade of the Vienna talks for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal is over and there is no more room to play around on the issue, it will have to get entrenched and make the final rush for the nuclear bomb. The ‘props’ in Syria are erected to shut down as many Israeli aircraft as they can before they reach their targets in Iran.”
Sirwan Mansouri, a Kurdish journalist based in the Middle East, concurred in an interview with Israel Today: “It is said that Israeli officials are ready to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in case of negotiation failure and they even set a budget for it. The talks to rejoin the JCPOA are reaching a dead end and Iran tries to waste time to shorten the needed time for making a nuclear bomb. Although the West and especially the US know this fact, they prefer to solve the problem by negotiations. But the matter for Israel is completely different.”
Israel is more willing to act to stop a nuclear Iran than the US is. Aside from this fact, Mansouri added that the Islamic Republic of Iran is ideologically committed to the destruction of Israel: “Iran never has hidden its intention to target Israel by any means. However, Iran does not have the power on the ground or in the air to defeat Israel, so they have been working on a new capability in recent decades: cyber-attacks and missile systems. Iran has increased its missile range and has acquired new radar capabilities.”
According to Mansouri, Iran has established a missile network system in areas controlled by their proxy groups in Lebanon, Syria and even Libya “to attack Israel in times of danger. Israel knows that Iran is moving to make an atomic bomb and the West knows it as well, but they are more far from Iran than Israel is, so the real threat is towards Israel. Iran also has strengthened its drones, which function as a suicide system. If there is a war, Iran can launch thousands of missiles and drones toward Israel. Although most will be destroyed by the Iron Dome, there will be intense psychological consequences for Israeli citizens.”
Mansouri claims that the West lacks the desire to wage war against Iran’s regime and that the Islamic Republic as well as Israel know this: “So, just one way remains I think and that is Israel must hit Iran’s nuclear facilities hard before it reaches the atomic bomb, so that it destroys Iran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon forever. At the same time, Israel must strengthen its defense system against Iran’s missiles and utilize modern technology such as the F-35 jets to neutralize Iran’s radar system and to use laser-based defense systems against its missiles.”
Nevertheless, Mansouri stressed that Israel does have some advantages in a possible war. He claimed that in the wake of the Abraham Accords, Israel can use the air space of its Arab allies, who are enemies of Iran ideologically, to attack Iran. According to Mansouri, it is also possible for Israel to utilize opposition groups inside Iran, who can “weaken the power of Iran’s regime to act normally and use its ultimate power.”
For example, inside of Iran, Southern Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Baloch, and Ahwaz all have grievances against the Islamic Republic of Iran and have active opposition groups, some of which seek to secede from Iran and establish their own sovereign nations, free of Persian hegemony. Two of these groups, Kurds, and Azerbaijanis, are known to be friendly towards Israel and will be eager to help fight against the mullahs’ regime.
There are also many liberal Persians who seek to have a democratic regime replace the Islamic Republic, as well as some Persian nationalists who would like the son of the former Shah to return to power. Some of them may also be eager to help Israel as well.
In conclusion, Mansouri declared: “I think if there is a war and Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and military bases using its full power the people’s dissatisfaction inside the country may lead to regime change. The Shah of Iran was a good friend of Israel in the past. Things can be like that again. Iran and Israel do not have to be enemies. If Israel liberates the Iranian people from this regime, then many Iranians will be grateful and help them.”
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